IEA PVPS Task 13 ST2.1 Uncertainties in Yield Assessments and PV LCOE
IEA PVPS Task 13
2021-06-16

Uncertainties in Yield Assessments and PV LCOE

Yield assessments (YA) and Long-Term Yield Predictions (LTYP) are a prerequisite for business decisions on long term investments into photovoltaic (PV) power plants. Together with cost data (CAPEX, OPEX and discount rate), the output of a YA and LTYP (utilization rate, performance loss rate and lifetime) provides to the financial investors the parameters needed for the calculation of the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) and to assess the cash flow model of an investment with relative Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Net Present Value (NPV).

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Ulrike Jahn
Boris Farnung

YA and LTYP outputs should be provided with a related exceedance probability. This gives the right tool to stakeholders involved in PV projects to take the best decision in terms of risk-aversion. A reduction in the uncertainty of the energy yield can lead to higher values for a given exceedance probability and hence a stronger business case. Various efforts in the literature show the importance of having a common framework that can assess the impact of technical risks on the economic performance of a PV project.

The most important parameter influencing the energy yield assessment is the site-specific insolation. Several aspects need to be considered: reliability of the database, inter-annual variability, long-term trends.

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